王文：谈中美第二阶段协议，或许还太早

编者按：7月14日，海关总署分析了中美经贸第一阶段进展情况。中国在突发疫情的困难面前，仍信守承诺履行双方达成的经贸协议。而就在此前一天，特朗普却表示意欲放弃中美第二阶段贸易协议。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文2月17日曾在瓦尔代国际辩论俱乐部网站发表文章《Too Early To Talk About China-U.S. P2 Trade Agreement》，其中大胆地判断中美第一阶段协议执行的难度不小，准备第二阶段协议的谈判还为时过早。本期，人大重阳君向您推荐英文原文、中文译文。

　　2020年中美第一阶段经贸协议签署。虽然美国副总统彭斯近期接受采访时说，第二阶段协议的谈判已在准备，但在我看来，当务之急是，如何保障落实第一阶段协议？

　　对中国而言，至少有两个难点：第一，在协议第六章，中国承诺“从2020年1月1日到2021年12月31日两年内，在2017年基数之上，扩大自美采购和进口制成品、农产品、能源产品和服务不少于2000亿美元。”这是一个巨大的、令全球都惊叹的增量。2017年中国从美进口1539亿美元，2019年下降至1227亿美元。按协议，意味着中国未来两年需要再从美国进口至少2322亿美元，年均增长约70%。这是相当难的目标。要知道，过去五年，中国从美国之外的其他国家进口仅增加了1529亿美元。

　　从这个角度看，欧盟、东南亚、日本这些中国主要贸易伙伴一定担心，中国会不会减少对他们的进口？更有人怀疑，中美这个贸易协议是否符合WTO规则？欧洲相关商会则建议，应该对中国施压，进行一场中欧贸易谈判，以便让中国更多地进口欧洲商品。

　　第二，在协议第四章，中国需要在2020年4月1日前取消对所有保险、证券、基金、期货服务领域的外资股比限制。目前，外资在中国保险、证券、基金、期货领域综合占比不超过3%。2020年第二季度开始，大量美国资金将会进入中国金融市场，会对中国金融市场产生难以预测的影响。

　　对美国而言，也有不少难点。比如，美国承诺对包括中国金融机构、科技公司在内实现市场准入。华为、三一等公司都有多年来的进入美国市场计划，还有上百家中国公司希望在纽约上市。美国的承诺是否能够兑现，也考验着美国的诚意。

　　但总体看，此番协议的达成，代表着两国愿意对等、互谅、理性地解决横亘在面前的重大分歧，体现了两个全球强国的责任与担当，努力让两国关系远离“修昔底德陷阱”，同时也符合中国、美国与世界各国的长远利益。在这份协议中，“合作”一词提了42次，“交流”14次，“美国确认”28处，“避免”8次，“竞争”8次，进而可以用三个关键词来形容此份协议：

　　一是“对等”：协议把双方放在对等地位，而非设置出一个重量级选手对轻量级选手的擂台。与谈判起点上，美方提出的全是不对等、单方面要求相比，这份艰苦谈判取得的结果，对中国来说更属不易。

　　二是“尊重”：协议内容体现出双方相互尊重对方制度和法律体系、尊重对方诉求的原则，犹如两个大侠过招，需要营造出一个两国博弈“不许用阴招”的合规竞争的国际氛围。

　　三是“理性”：尽管过程曲折，但双方朝着通过谈判桌解决分歧的方向在努力，终达共同认可的协议。虽是第一阶段，接下来的谈判更艰难，但这本身就为双方今后以共同“入场”而非绕道“场外”处理问题、理性谈判而非单方面动作塑造了出良好的平台。

　　事实上，协议文本中许多被美方视作中方“承诺”的内容，其实是6年多前的十八届三中全会早就提出要实现的目标，中方只是在协议中“重申”了坚定决心，而协议签署为中国继续全面深化改革创造了良好的外部环境。另外，协议中也看到， IMF等国际机构作用与影响在提升，无疑是在巩固了现有的国际经济秩序，防范并提前化解了世界经济失速各国陷入贸易保护的重大风险。

　　当然，一些民众可能会有些担心金融开放的内容，诚如文中所说，中美金融是对等开放。开放也将倒逼中国金融深化改革。所谓“中流击水，浪遏飞舟”，第一阶段协议只是中美博弈常态的一个休止符，两国分歧不可能有“一劳永逸”解决方案。中国未来要“恶补”国际法、国际经济、国际商务、国际金融等系列“课程”，为维护中国国家利益，推动中美两国人民的福祉、造福世界做出更大贡献。

　　同时，根据中国官方媒体报道，这场谈判的最终结果符合中国全面深化改革的方向，也符合提升中国民众消费需求的目标。当前，中国石油65%以上靠进口，中国也是芯片、集成电路、半导体等产品的全球第一进口大国。从这个角度看，多进品美国的商品并没有错。

　　2019年中国人口首次超过14亿。中国社会消费品零售总额约6万亿美元，增长8%，增量约5000亿美元。不出意外的话，未来两年，中国将产生1万亿美元的社会消费增量，将全面超过美国成为世界第一大消费市场。消化2322亿美元从美国来的进口增量，中国完全是有可能的。

　　2020年，美国将进行总统大选。第一阶段协议已确保在第一任期特朗普的功绩。可以预料，在大选期间，中国仍会成为重大议题，不排除炒作中国、抹黑中国。但对中国舆论与决策者而言，几乎已经习惯了“每到大选必骂中国”的规律。

　　近两年的中美经贸摩擦最终能走到“停火协议”，充分说明在相互尊重、平等互利的基本原则之下，中美两国的决策者都有足够的政治智慧来妥善解决两国间复杂且敏感的问题，既造福两国人民，又为世界经济的稳定与可持续繁荣贡献负责任大国的力量。

以下为英文版

Too Early To Talk About China-U.S. P2 Trade Agreement

By Wang Wen

China and the US signed the phase one (P1) trade agreement on Jan. 15, 2020. Additionally, in a recent interview, US Vice President Mike Pence said that negotiations for the phase two (P2) trade agreement are already under way. But in my opinion, the top priority now for the two powers is deciding how to ensure the implementation of the phase one trade agreement.

For China, there are at least two difficulties: First, China promises in Chapter 6 that "during the two-year period from January 1st, 2020 through December 31st, 2021, it would ensure purchases and imports into China of US of manufactured goods, agricultural goods, energy products, and services exceeding the corresponding 2017 baseline amount by no less than $200 billion." Such huge increases astounded the world. China's imports from the United States fell to $122.7 billion in 2019 from $153.9 billion in 2017. According to the agreement, China will import at least $232.2 billion from the United States over the next two years and will increase purchases by an average of about 70% annually, which is a rather difficult goal. It must be noted that China's imports from other countries besides the United States have increased by just $152.9 billion over the past five years.

From this point of view, China’s major trading partners such as the European Union, the Southeast Asian countries and Japan are worried about whether the country will reduce imports from them. Some even doubt that the China-U.S. trade deal is in compliance with WTO rules. There are chambers of commerce in Europe suggesting that the continent should pressure China into a trade negotiation so that it will import more European products.

Second, according to Chapter 4 of the agreement, China will need to lift restrictions on foreign investment in all areas of insurance, securities, funds and futures services by April 1st, 2020. Foreign investment currently accounts for less than 3 percent of China's insurance, securities, funds and futures sectors. Starting in the second quarter of 2020, large amounts of fund will enter China's financial markets, with an unpredictable effects on China’s financial markets.

There are also many difficulties for the US. For example, the U.S. is committed to opening market access for Chinese financial institutions and technology companies. HUAWEI, SANY and other companies from China had planned for many years to enter the US market, and hundreds of Chinese companies hope to pursue an IPO in New York. Whether the promise of the United States can be fulfilled is also a test of Washington's sincerity.

But overall, this agreement indicates that the two global powers are willing to equally and rationally resolve the disputes ahead of them on the basis of mutual understanding. It also reflects the responsibility of the two global powers, who strive to keep bilateral relations away from the ‘Thucydides trap’. This agreement is in line with the long-term interests of China, the United States and the rest of the world. In this agreement, "cooperation" has been mentioned 42 times, "exchange" 14 times, "confirmation by the United States" 28 times, "avoid" 8 times, and "competition" 8 times. Then there are three key words which can be used to describe this agreement:

The first key word is ‘Equality’: the agreement sees the two sides as equals, rather than setting the stage for a heavyweight and a lightweight player. Compared with the beginning of the negotiations one and a half years ago, when the US put forward some unequal, unilateral demands, now the results of the tough negotiations are not easy for China.

The second one is ‘Respect’: The content of the agreement embodies the principle of mutual respect for each other's legal systems and demands. Just like in chivalrous societies, it is necessary for the countries to create an international atmosphere of compliance where they ‘do not use dirty tricks’ in the game.

The third one is ‘Rational’: Despite the twists and turns of the process, the two countries are working towards resolving their differences through negotiation and eventually reaching a mutually-recognised agreement. However, it was the first stage, and the P2 trade agreement negotiations will be more difficult. But all create a platform for the two sides in the future to jointly ‘enter’ rather than detour ‘off-site' to deal with the problem, and pursue rational negotiations rather than unilateral action.

In fact, much of the content of the agreement, which is regarded as China's ‘commitment' by the US, consists of the objectives set out at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China more than 6 years ago. China has only ‘reaffirmed’ its firm resolve in the agreement, and the signing of the agreement has created a favourable external environment for China to continue to deepen reform in an all-round way. In addition, the agreement also shows that the role and impact of the IMF and other international institutions are in the promotion. No doubt that in the consolidation of the existing international economic order, to prevent and early resolve the world economy stall countries into trade protection of the major risks.

Of course, some people may worry about the content of financial openness. As the article says, Sino-US financial openness is reciprocal; opening up will also force China to deepen its financial reform. The P1 agreement is only a rest from the normal game between the U.S and China, the differences between the two powers can’t have a ‘once and for all’ solution. In the future, China will need to take a series of courses in international law, international economics, international business and international finance to make greater contributions to safeguarding China's national interests.

Actually, the final result of the negotiation is in line with China's overall goal of deepening reform and boosting consumer demand. At present, more than 65% of China's oil is imported. China is the world's largest importer of chips, integrated circuits, semiconductors and other products. From this point of view, there is nothing wrong with importing more American goods.

The $232.2 billion-dollar increase in annual imports from the US can’t be a burden to China, where the population topped 1.4 billion in 2019. Total retail sales of consumer goods have been about 6 trillion dollars annually, and are increasing at a rate of 8% and near $500 billion dollars. In the next two years, it is expected that 1 trillion dollars of consumption will be generated in China, which will surpass the US as the largest consumer market in the World.

The U.S presidential election is this year. The P1 agreement has become President Trump's first term's big achievement. Although it can be expected that during the presidential election, China will remain a major public topic and be subjected to all kinds of criticism, speculation and discredit, China has become accustomed to the rule that "every US election, they must scold China."

The economic and trade frictions between China and the US over the past two years have finally reached a ‘cease-fire agreement’, which is based on the principles of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit. The policy makers of both China and the US have sufficient political wisdom to properly solve the complex and sensitive problems between the two countries, which not only benefit the people who live in them, but also contribute to the stability and sustainable prosperity of the global economy.