用达观叩响未来之门——盘古智库2020新年献词（中英文）

用达观叩响未来之门

——盘古智库2020新年献词

EMBRACE THE FUTURE WITH

A BROAD VISION

– THE PANGOAL INSTITUTION’S

2020 NEW YEAR’S MESSAGE

当新年钟声敲响，我们站在了21世纪第三个十年的门槛上。来路何等不凡，党、国家和民族经历了怎样的磨难与历炼，才取得今天这样的成就。

The New Year’s bell will ring, and we are approaching the third decade of the 21st century. The past was anything but easy. It is hard to imagine what hardships our Party, our country, and our people have experienced to accomplish such extraordinary achievements today.

回想100年前，当20世纪第三个十年开启之际，中国还在半封建半殖民地的深渊里挣扎，于外患内忧之中酝酿着激烈的路径选择。

A hundred years ago, when China was about to usher in the third decade of the 20th century, Chinese people were still struggling in a semi-colonial and semi-feudal society, and preparing to choose a path forward with troubles at home and abroad around.

1920年，共产主义小组开始在中华大地一些省份出现，其中一个开始起草《中国共产党宣言》，第一缕曙光出现在天际线上。十年过后，经历挫折的中国共产党处在革命低潮期。1930年新年，毛泽东收到一封贺年信，写信的红军将领发出了“红旗到底能打多久”的疑问。几天后，毛泽东回了信，指出“星星之火，可以燎原”。

In 1920, Communist groups sprouted up in some provinces of China. One of them drafted the Manifesto of the Communist Party of China, which marked the dawn of a new era. A decade later, the Chinese Communist Party, severely challenged, reached its bottom during the revolution. At the beginning of 1930, Mao Zedong received a New Year’s greeting from a General in the Red Army who raised the question “How long can the Red Flag flutter in the wind?” Mao replied a few days later that “A single spark can start a prairie fire.”

在迈入2020年之际想起这个故事，是因为我们在过去一年真切感受到，身边不少朋友不同程度地产生甚至陷入悲观，这种情绪源于经济增长的持续放缓，源于中美贸易战的起起伏伏，源于民营企业遭遇的困难，源于外部变化的光怪陆离......

This history comes to mind as the New Year approaches, because we noticed that people around us have become more or less negative, or even pessimistic in the past year, as economic growth continues to slow down, the China–US trade war encounters ups and downs, the private sector is affected by difficulties, and complicated and unexpected changes happened one after another outside of China…

嗯，所有这些也是我们能够体察的。我们活在一个变化的世界里，种种变化令我们无从躲避，而那些焦虑和悲观，归根结底是来自于面对变化的措手不及和无能为力吧。

These are all happening around us. The volatile world leaves us nowhere to hide from changes. The anxiety and pessimism, in a final analysis, are perhaps a natural response to shock and helplessness.

我们面对的变化不外乎三种：一种是生产生活方式之变，它由市场调节、结构升级、科技进步等因素带来。一种是国家和社会形态之变，它由政策调整、路线摆动、战略演进等因素带来。再一种是外部环境之变，涉及世界经济环境、全球战略环境、国际关系环境、自然气候环境，等等。

Changes we face can be summarized from three perspectives: First, changes in production and lifestyle, resulting from market adjustment, structural upgrading, and technological advances; second, changes in country and society brought about by policy adjustment, path changes, and strategic evolution; third, changes in external environment involving the global economy, the international strategic environment, international relations, and the climate and natural environment.

这些变化，没有一样全由主观意志塑造，也没有一样只能归结于客观原因。同样的，没有谁能自信满满地说“变化尽在掌握”，也没有谁可以草率认定“面对变化我们无从选择”。

None of these changes can be solely attributed to man-made causes, nor are they simply due to objective factors. In the same vein, no one can assert that “changes are under control” or hastily declare that “there is nothing we can do.”

我们处在三种变化同时活跃发生且相互作用、相互纠缠的时期，很多不符合预期的事情交替发生，所以悲观情绪不可避免地在一些人心中滋长，这并不为怪。

In this stage with three changes interacting and interwoven with each other, many surprises come about one after another, and it is natural that pessimism inevitably takes root in people’s mind as a result.

但无论怎样，乐观者都不能缺位，因为乐观的本质是对良善与良治的信仰和对未来的美好预期，更是对人、社会、国家和文明不断进化的欲求。没有乐观者的探索，我们的祖先可能早就放弃了在恶劣自然环境中的抗争，我们也不可能像今天这样插上技术的翅膀、创建繁盛的机制、享受长久的和平。

Regardless, we should always remain optimistic, as optimism equals not only faith in goodwill and sound governance, but also positive expectations for the future as well as the pursuit of constant evolution of human, society, nation, and civilization. Without optimism in their exploration, our ancestors might have long given up fighting against the harsh natural environment, and we could not have achieved technological miracles, flourishing societies, and long-lasting peace.

面对错综复杂的变化，我们不应无视那些可以让我们保持乐观的理由：比如，经济增长的确在放缓，中国与美国的经济关系的确在经历痛苦的再平衡，但它们背后恰是供给侧改革持续推进、中国加速向史诗级庞大消费社会转型的事实，而这种转型必然给我们带来崭新的面貌，做大国有与民营经济共同繁荣的“蛋糕”。

Even surrounded by complicated changes, we have no reason to be pessimistic. Indeed, our economy is slowing down and China-US economic relations are struggling to rebalance. However, we should discover what has been hidden: China’s supply-side structural reform continues to make steady progress, and China is accelerating its transition towards a consumer society on an unprecedented scale, which in turn will push China towards a new stage and make a bigger “cake” of common prosperity to be shared by the public and private sectors of China’s economy.

再比如，我们在建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会的过程中的确发生了一些冒进，但各级政府在中央指导下迅速做出调整，建起试错和纠错机制，而这种变化必然保障越来越多地方形成“绿水青山”与“金山银山”的良性循环，让越来越多百姓过上幸福美好的日子。

Take the environment as another example. We have made haste when building a resource-conserving and environmentally-friendly society, but under the guidance of the Central Government, governments at all levels adjusted their policies immediately and set up a mechanism that allows trial and error correction. The policy changes will certainly guarantee a virtuous circle where “lucid waters and lush mountains” are equal to “invaluable assets” and ensure a better life for more people.

还有，我们的对外关系发生着结构性的变化，中国的崛起遭遇了近年罕见的怀疑和阻挠，形成了很多我们不得不全力应对的麻烦，但这些恰恰提高了我们的博弈能力，也提醒我们冷静看待自身能量、客观理解他人诉求，更加注意以一种平和、开放、包容的方式走向世界历史的舞台。

In addition, China’s foreign relations are experiencing structural changes. China, in recent years, has risen with unusual suspicion and obstacles, which we must overcome. These challenges, however, improve our national strategies and remind us of measuring our own power while understanding other’s demands objectively, and approaching the center of the global stage in a peaceful, open-minded, and inclusive manner.

尼采说，“人是一根绳索，连接在动物与超人之间——绳索悬于深渊上方”。没有强者是在顺境中炼成的，人的主观意志在乐观主义与悲观主义之间的选择往往能够决定绳索摆动的方向，决定我们是升上晴空还是滑向深渊。

Nietzsche once said, “Man is a rope stretched between the animal and the Superman – a rope over an abyss.” No one grows to be strong in favorable circumstances. When choosing between optimism and pessimism, one can ultimately decide to which side the rope swings – either the bright sky or a deep abyss.

不过，我们在倡导乐观主义的同时，仍要感谢悲观者主义的敏感。积极的悲观主义者，也是清醒的现实主义者，往往还是善意的批评者。他们能看透问题的本质，摆出事物发展的最坏可能，提醒我们尊重常识，注意行为的边界和逻辑的底线，懂得在前进的同时提防风险，避免盲目乐观和虚假自信。

While advocating optimism, we should also be grateful to the sensitivity of those pessimists. Optimistic pessimists are clear-headed realists and often criticize with good intentions. They can determine the nature of the problem, point out the worst-case scenarios, and remind us of common sense and bottom lines for our behavior and logic. They know how to prevent risks while moving ahead and avoid blind optimism and fictitious thinking.

其实在乐观与悲观之间有一种更贴近理性的态度，那便是“达观”。

Here is a more rational attitude than optimism and pessimism -- “broad vision.”

“达观”，是一种洞察力。在新的十年开启的端口，我们尤其需要从历史的角度洞察各种趋势——政治的、经济的、社会的、技术的、文化的、战略的、交往范式的......善于从变化中找到规律和方向，从不确定性中发现确定性。

A “broad vision” entails insights. At the threshold of a new decade, it is essential for us to have insights into political, economic, social, technological, cultural, strategic, and relationship paradigm aspects. Moreover, insights enable us to pinpoint a regular pattern and direction in changes and certainty in uncertainty.

“达观”，是一种信任力。信任是凝聚的前提，我们要相信党和政府一定能带着我们迎难克险，不断推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化。

A “broad vision” entails trust. Trust is the prerequisite for unity. We must believe that our Party and government will sail through all the difficulties with us and continue the modernization of China’s system and capacity for governance.

“达观”，是一种包容力。“君子贤而能容罢，知而能容愚，博而能容浅，粹而能容杂”。包容是听取不同意见、理解不同想法、兼容各方利益、全方位考虑问题的能力，这种品质在复杂变化的当下尤其难能可贵。

A “broad vision” entails inclusiveness. “A man of virtue is virtuous but can accept heartily those who have no virtue, smart but can accept heartily those who are slow-witted, well-informed but can accept heartily those who are unlearned, and righteous but can accept heartily those who are sinful.” Inclusiveness means listening to and understanding different opinions, accommodating interests of different parties and considering problems from all perspectives. It is a quality that is especially valuable in a moment of complicated changes.

“达观”，是一种隐忍力。只要继续存在，我们就不应轻言放弃，也不能把眼界困在当下。多少年后当我们在大海里畅游时，回头看今天经历的事情，可能只不过“台风过境”而已。

A “broad vision” entails endurance. As long as we have breath, we should never give up or limit our vision in the present. Years afterwards, when we sail freely across the ocean and look back on what we would have done, the past is no more than a “hurricane passing by.”

“达观”，更是一种行动力。一打口号比不上一个行动，一堆抱怨不如付诸奋斗。如果一个社会能够让谨慎的乐观主义者和积极的悲观主义坐到一起，为了共同的目标把不同角度的智慧和洞见汇集起来，转化为披荆斩棘、改变现实的行动，那么这个社会一定是个强大的社会，也一定能到达美好生活的彼岸。

More importantly, a “broad vision” entails action. Actions speak louder than words, and striving means more than complaining. Only by bringing different ideas and insights from optimists and pessimists for common goals, which inspire actions that can blaze a new trail through hardships and change reality, can society grow strong enough to support a good life.

盘古智库所秉持的“天地人和、经世致用”理念，本质上是一种达观的价值取向。

The Pangoal Institution upholds the philosophy of “pursuing harmony between nature and humankind and applying knowledge for public policy solutions,” which in its essence also demonstrates the value of a broad vision.

盘古智库作为社会智库，即将进入她的第七个年头。过去一年，我们紧随趋势、紧跟政策，积极参与中外交流，继续在宏观经济、老龄社会、数字经济、县域转型、区域合作、边海问题等领域发力，成功举办一系列研讨活动并提交、发布相关报告和专著，助力国家改革和发展大计，助力中国与印度、东盟、日本、韩国、美国等国的外交关系，入选“区域国别研究与国际关系领域TOP15”“一带一路研究特色智库”“新浪财经头条年度最佳智库”，获得“CTTI智库最佳实践案列”等荣誉，也有多位学术委员在各自领域取得骄人成就。

As a social think tank, the Pangoal Institution is now nearly seven years old. In the past year, we kept a close eye on all the trends and policies and actively engaged in foreign exchanges. We continued our efforts in studying many fields, including macroeconomics, aging society, smart agriculture, transitions in counties, regional cooperation, and boundary and ocean affairs, and hosted a series of seminars, submitted and published related reports and books in support of China’s reform and development as well as China’s foreign relations with countries such as India, the ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, and the US. We were among the “Top 15 Institutes of International and Regional Studies and International Relations” and awarded “Best Think Tank on the Belt and Road Studies,” “Best Think Tank in 2018” by Sina Finance and “Best Practice for Think Tanks in 2019” by CTTI. Many scholars at the Pangoal Institution also made remarkable breakthroughs in their own fields.

所有这些都是在挑战和压力增多的情况下取得的，没有智库专家学者和工作人员坚守本心不能实现，没有大家保持关注和支持不能完成。越是快速变化的形势，越蕴含有所作为的机会。我们将继续沿着已选定的路径走深走实，也祝愿大家都拥有强大的内心、坚持理想的情怀，把2020年的路走好，以此叩响通向广阔未来的大门。

All of this was achieved despite many challenges and growing pressure and cannot possibly be achieved without the professionals, scholars, and other staff who adhere to their initial goals or without the attention and support from all. The faster things change, the more opportunities there are for us to make a difference. We will tread the path we chose with more determination and more endeavor. We wish you all stay true to your dreams in 2020 with a strong mind, and embrace a brighter future.

盘古智库

2019年12月31日